On the Friday of the British Grand Prix at Silverstone, I was fortunate enough to spend the day as a guest of Shell to discuss their technical partnership with the Ferrari Formula 1 team. I was keen to understand the difference that Shell made to the performance of the two Ferrari cars and to see whether I could gain any insight that would be useful in forecasting their future performance.

Throughout the day I was able to witness the Shell Track Lab, where detailed testing of the composition of all fuel takes place to ensure adherence to the strict F1 regulations, the Ferrari mechanics working on the cars between free practice sessions, an overview of the refuelling process. There were also several opportunities to talk with key people in the Shell/Ferrari technical partnership.

The main theme of the day was the technology and people behind Shell V-Power, but that didn’t stop me asking questions about the sporting implications of their development. As you may expect, any quantification of performance advantage was difficult to ascertain, with much deemed commercially sensitive. Naturally whilst I was looking for an edge over the bookmakers, Ferrari weren’t keen to reveal details of any edge over the other teams.

My question as to whether there was a difference in the fuel economy achieved between Felipe Massa and Kimi Raikkonen – perhaps as a result of their driving styles – and whether this had any effect on strategy, was greeted with nothing more than a smile!

I asked Lisa Lilley (Shell Technology Manager) whether Shell designed fuels specifically for different conditions to maximise Ferrari’s performance. Her reply was fascinating. Yes, they certainly were able to design fuels and liquids that best performed for example, in high temperatures or for the characteristics of specific tracks. Indeed they had done in the past – when Ferrari would hand them a set of requirements in advance of races which they would then supply to. However for the last eighteen months, Ferrari’s requirements have been static: an ongoing desire for more horsepower.

Lisa also emphasised that these performance improvements did not just come from the fuel, but from all of the liquids and lubricants that Shell custom-design for Ferrari . Shell currently employ more than fifty technical staff on the Ferrari F1 programme and feel confident that this gives them a performance edge over teams who simply procure fuel from a retailer. With the Formula 1 regulations dictating that the fuel used is so close to that which is pumped in to regular road cars, the trickle-down benefits of this development are clear.

The similarity in their race and road fuel was a message that was reinforced throughout the day, not just by the marketing team, but by the technology staff themselves. Specific developments such as Friction Modification Technology – which was developed for the race fuel – are now present on the forecourt. I offered to test the similarity by using a tank of race fuel in my road car for the long journey home. The Shell team seemed comfortable enough with their achievements to forego the need for my test.

Whilst there is a constant programme of development, logistics dictate that new products are not introduced at every race. For example, Formula One Management shipping requirements meant that the fuel used for the first four races was identical. Shell revealed that they are currently aiming for two or three performance steps throughout the season. Unfortunately – although unsurprisingly – I wasn’t able to determine precisely when these would be, although Lisa confirmed that they are likely to occur at natural points in the season, e.g. the return to Europe from fly-away races.

Over lunch I asked Shell to quantify their own value to the Ferrari team and to compare themselves with the fuel suppliers to other teams. Perhaps unwilling to deal in specifics, I was directed to events after the final round of the 2008 season. Despite the obvious disappointment being felt within the team due to Felipe missing out on the drivers’ championship by a single point, both he and Kimi took the opportunity to thank Shell for their contribution to the team’s success. The pride of recognition was immediately obvious in voices of the Shell employees.

Overall it was a fascinating day, with an incredible amount of detail offered by the Shell team. In terms of looking at where fuel will give Ferrari an edge in races, I think that I can only go as far as to say: watch out for relative performance improvements from the bigger teams – with dedicated fuel partnerships – at the natural opportunities within the season to bring new developments to the car. In this respect, fuel is no different to any of the components which teams introduce throughout the campaign in their quest to move further up the grid.

I’ve been doing a bit of analysis on Qualifying runs and declared fuel – using La Canta Magnifico’s Fuel Fing – in an effort to forecast pit-stop schedules. Here’s the output:

Lap 15: Nakajima
Lap 16: Alonso, Raikonnen
Lap 17: Button, Trulli
Lap 18: Glock, Barrichello, Webber
Lap 19: Rosberg
Lap 20: Vettel, Heidfeld, Hamilton
Lap 21: Fisichella
Lap 23: Buemi
Lap 24: Massa
Lap 27: Piquet
Lap 29: Kubica, Bourdais
Lap 31: Sutil
Lap 32: Kovalainen

With the race being 60 laps, the BMW drivers look like they are on split strategies and with Kubica not all that far outside the top-ten in Q3 yesterday, I will be keeping an eye on his price in the Points market (current 9/4 not entirely appealing). I will also be looking to chase both Raikkonen and Alonso out of the Points at around even money the pair.

I’ve also taken a chance that the predicted cool temperatures will handicap the Brawns a touch and have laid Barrichello at 1.64 for a Podium spot and backed Rosberg at a shade over 10/1 in the same market.

Finally, I think Webber is a big price at 12/1 to lead after the first lap. He is on the correct side of the grid to overhaul Barrichello in second (who has suffered start-line problems in Melbourne and Istanbul) and his lighter fuel load could well give him a chance to draft Vettel down Hangar Straight, going into Stowe.

A few people will know that I backed Mark Webber in qualifying at Silverstone last year at odds of 150/1. With just one driver left out on track at the end of the session, the Australian was on provisional pole. Unfortunately it wasn’t to be, but the bet has stuck in my mind ever since.

As early as last weekend I was watching Oddschecker, waiting for the firms to price up the Silverstone Saturday. Sky Bet were first out with their prices on Monday and the odds for the two Red Bull Renault drivers immediately caught my eye:

9/4 Vettel
9/1 Webber

Throughout the week various firms have released their prices, but none on Oddschecker have been bigger than 9/1 about Webber. I did manage to spot Bwin offering 11/1, but I’ve heard plenty of horror stories about their service. Even Webber’s back price on Betfair has been consistently shorter than Sky Bet’s best price.

So, is there any value in backing Webber this year? First thoughts might be that it is no 150/1 offering, but the competitiveness of the car has moved on by such a degree that it was never going to be. Then there is the relativity of his price to Vettel’s. Webber has a reputation for being exceptionally quick over one-lap and has, in previous seasons, dominated his team-mates in this regard. It is perhaps surprising then that Vettel is leading their qualifying head-to-head seven-nil so far this season.

We should remember though that these drivers are in the same car and whilst Vettel was on fire at the start of the year, Webber has actually brought home more points in each of the last three Grand Prix. Perhaps he is starting to get to grips with his machine?

Jenson Button has been the man to beat in Qualifying this year and it is reasonable to assume that any driver that finishes ahead of the Briton on Saturday, has a fair chance of ending up on Pole. Being ahead of the Brawns will be critical for the Red Bulls, as we saw in Turkey the difficulty that they had when following other cars. Could the answer be for the team to repeat the strategy of last year and drop the fuel out in Q3? Certainly the Silverstone circuit is expected to play to the strengths of the Adrian Newey designed car.

Something else to always consider when betting on the British race any more than a few moments before the start, is the possibility of inclement weather. As I type this we are bathed in glorious sunshine, but there is no guarantee that it will be the same come Saturday 20th June. Poor weather wouldn’t put me off backing a Red Bull driver though, with the car perhaps the most proven in wet conditions this year, illustrated by the team’s dominant one-two finish in China.

At 20/1 bar, the bookmakers seem to be excluding the possibility of anyone other than a Brawn or Red Bull driver leading the parade lap. Barrichello has a known liking for the Silverstone circuit and has a couple of Pole Positions under his belt from his Ferrari days. Button as we know has been the man to beat. Vettel has had limited running at Silverstone. He qualified eighth on his only F1 appearance here and retired on the first lap. At last year’s three-day Silverstone test he managed just one day of clear running in his Toro Rosso.

If Webber is going to start to redress the qualifying head-to-head imbalance with his team-mate, then I feel that this could be the place to do it. Assuming that Red Bull want at least one of their drivers ahead of the Brawn GP pair – and will fuel accordingly – I think backing Webber as the clear outsider of the quartet is a good starting point for the weekend.

Two prices – about which Ladbrokes are top-priced amongst the fixed-odds firms – caught my eye this evening:

Jenson Button World Drivers Champion: 1/12
Jenson Button BBC Sports Personality of the Year: Evens

Nobody is going to get rich backing the first price, but it reflects how confident the market now is that Button will be victorious in the championship. The price for Sports Personality is more interesting. Formula One drivers have a good record of winning this award:

1961 Stirling Moss
1973 Jackie Stewart
1992 Nigel Mansell
1994 Damon Hill
1996 Damon Hill

Equally, Lewis Hamilton (2008 and 2009), Graham Hill, Jim Clark and James Hunt have all finished as runners-up.

Stewart, Mansell and Hill (1996) were all reigning world champions. Hill managed to win in 1994 despite losing out to Michael Schumacher. Hamilton’s failure to win the award as champion last year can be attributed to it being an Olympic year, which brings a wider range of sporting success to the public’s attention than is typical.

In 2009 there are no Olympics Games and no World Cup (not that many would expect England to win it anyway). There has been no British winner of the Champions League and with Calzaghe retired, Hatton defeated and Haye injured, no likely marquee boxing success. Andy Murray would have to win Wimbledon (or possibly the US Open) to win this award. Perhaps the biggest moves in the market would come from England regaining the Ashes with a standout performer.

In terms of Formula 1, Button seems to be impressing the BBC commentators with his attitude as well as his driving. Whilst conspiracy theorists would attempt to draw a link between the amount of money that the BBC have spent of F1 rights (not to the universal approval of the general public) with the coverage that they would give Button in the build-up to and during the coverage of this year’s award. This is an argument that is made about the increased profile that the sport now enjoys on the popular BBC Sport website.

At the time of writing, the last price matched about Button winning SPOTY on Betfair was 1.74. You can back the evens with Ladbrokes and lay off the bet for a guaranteed profit on the exchange. The downside of course is tying up money until 13th December with the ROI relatively small. Still, it is risk free and if that is your game then it has to be preferable to the 1/12 for the Drivers’ title.

As it stands, beyond the standard “it’s the car not the driver” argument which hasn’t sufficiently deterred voters in the past, I can’t see any reason not to back Button to win the award at even money.

Much has been written over the past week about the dominance of the Ferrari drivers at Istanbul since it was added to the Formula 1 race calendar in 2005. It is interesting to look at this success in terms of setting the fastest race laps.

In 2005, Ferrari didn’t actually perform particularly well, but their two current drivers were already getting to grips with the complexities of Hermann Tilke’s latest creation. Kimi Raikkonen – then driving a McLaren – set the second fastest lap of the race, whilst Massa was able to haul his Sauber into the top ten.

2006 saw the start of Ferrari’s dominance. Team-leader Schumacher setting the fastest lap and Massa following him home, placing second in the standings. Kimi – still driving his McLaren – spun off before completing a circuit.

2007 saw Ferrari’s current driver line-up tackle the Istanbul Racing Circuit for the first time as team-mates: Raikkonen set the fastest lap and Massa set the second-fastest.

2008 again saw the Finn top the time sheets, with Felipe just missing out on second behind Lewis Hamilton. Still an impressive effort.

Nobody who has followed the Fastest Lap market over the last few years will be surprised by Raikkonen’s omnipresence. Massa, whilst never actually setting the fastest race lap here, has been consistently quick.

The 2009 season has seen, in the context of recent history, an unprecedented struggle for pace from Ferrari. Monaco is being talked about as a turning point for the team – and perhaps it will be – but this graph tells a slightly different story.

Above I have plotted both drivers fastest lap position (relative to the other drivers – 1 being the fastest lap and 20 the slowest) for the first six races and performed a simple trend analysis.

Raikkonen’s one lap pace, given his prominence in this area in recent seasons, is distinctly unremarkable and not yet showing much sign of improvement. Massa on the other hand, after starting the season in an acknowledged poor car, has gradually being wringing more and more from his machine. This culminated in him setting the fastest race lap last time out in Monaco.

So how will the drivers fair this weekend?

Ross Brawn, former team principle and now head of this weekend’s chief rivals Brawn GP thinks that the Ferrari is well positioned to challenge:

“They have improved so much and on top of that they have KERS, which on this track is probably worth an advantage of 2 to 3 tenths of a second. It took them a while to get it all together, but now the car is reliable and they are reaping the rewards.”

Source: James Allen on F1 and Gazzetta dello Sport

However neither driver shone in what was an inconclusive couple of practice sessions on Friday. Given that I had a bet in mind, I was watching Massa’s performance closely. Listening to the few onboard radio transmissions to which we were privy, it appears that the root-cause of his issues was graining on his Bridgestone tyres. This gives me heart, as fastest laps are normally set towards the end of fuel stints when the car is at its lightest. Often by this stage the tyres will have passed through the graining stage and the grip will have returned. Kimi put his lack of pace down to more general set-up issues.

The evidence is therefore inconclusive as to whether it is likely that a Ferrari driver will set the fastest lap on Sunday. In their favour is their historical dominance of this market, the improvement shown by Massa in recent races and the expected performance upgrades to their car. Against them is the fact that they didn’t set the world alight in Free Practice 1 or 2 and have yet to prove that they are genuinely as fast as the Brawns or the Red Bulls.

The current best fixed odds prices for setting the fastest lap are:

11/4 Button
5/1 Vettel
5/1 Barrichello
7/1 Massa
7/1 Raikkonen
14/1 Webber
20/1 Trulli
25/1 Hamilton
28/1 Alonso
40/1 Bar

On the balance of the above evidence, I’m going to take a stab at both Ferrari drivers. However given Massa’s performance this season, I am going to weight my stakes in favour of the Brazilian.

Good luck with any bets that you are placing.

At the risk of following them over a cliff (in which case I would need wings), I’m having another dash at the Red Bulls this weekend.

With the benefit of hindsight, the car seems to be much better suited to circuits where the tempo is quick (Malaysia, China, Bahrain) and where the corners are of a much faster variety than they encountered in Monte Carlo. This weekend in Turkey, they get just such a circuit.

Perhaps the most important aspect of the RB5 package for Istanbul is that they run their double-deck diffuser for the first time on a traditional race-track. These devices have given every team that has run them a distinct advantage (between two and five tenths, depending on the outfit) and it’s hard to believe that a genius like Adrian Newey won’t be able to conjure additional pace out of the car, now that it gets a run-out on a track which should suit the characteristics of the car well.

Couple this with the fact that the Red Bull was quick here last year (all things being relative – it was still well off the pace of the Ferrari) and I’m inclined to side with my old pal Mark Webber at the weekend. The Aussie continues to be available at odds which are not, in my opinion, a true reflection of his chance and the Tote again go out on a limb at 20/1. I think that price should be taken – though only in order to get a marker down – as I have a crack-pot theory that we may get an even bigger price after Practice 1.

Last year, the RBR’s were nowhere in the first free practice session on the Friday, with Webber and Coulthard finishing sixteenth and seventeenth respectively. Coulthard then went fourth in P2, with Webber still nowhere (nineteenth), however, Webber topped the timesheets on the Saturday morning.

With the new diffuser still essentially untried, I can envisage a situation where P1/P2 are used primarily as test sessions for the part, rather than an opportunity to blast in some quick lap times, and it’s possible that neither car will consequently figure highly on the Friday lap-charts. I’d then be looking to go in hard as soon as Webber (and Vettel) pushed out in price. I might also have a look at the P2 odds to see if there is any larceny to be had after first practice, just in case.

I genuinely believe that an RBR with a fully functioning split-diffuser is well capable of serving it up to the Brawns and I’m investing my faith in Adrian Newey, and the lantern-jawed Aussie (who has been making confident noises over the last couple of days). After qualifying sixth and finishing seventh in a moderate car last year, Webber clearly drives the circuit well and it’s fingers crossed that he breaks his duck this weekend. I’ve consequently (and perhaps suicidally) laid Button at 6/4 as well.

If Massa had been available at a more realistic price for the Podium, I would probably have backed him, but I don’t believe that the Ferrari is quite the second-best car on the grid just yet: and much as he is great around here, I’ve felt compelled to lay him at a shade over 11/10 to get into the first three. I’d also be quite keen to lay Alonso in the Points at odds-on (1.9 chance at present), but will wait until there’s a bit more volume in the market before having a proper look.

For anyone interested in some analysis of different driver’s practice routines and how that knowledge can help us to extract the maximum value from bets by entering the market at the optimum time, check out this excellent post from John at Flutterfly.co.uk.

I think that there is a very real possibility that Sebastian Vettel will win the Monaco Grand Prix. The Red Bull looks to be the most mechanically proficient car this season and this weekend, for the first time, Adrian Newey has bolted on a double-decker diffuser.

What’s more the young German has been qualifying superbly this season, holding the upper-hand with acknowledged one-lap king Mark Webber. The Monte Carlo circuit of course rewards pole-sitters handsomely and the Red Bull pilot will relish that given his record for turning first on the grid into first across the line.

Vettel is currently best-priced at 100/30 with Stan James. I’ve looked at that price hard. I see no more likely winner of the race, including the bookmaker’s favourite Button. However, with three practice sessions, three qualifying sessions and seventy-eight race laps between now and payout, there is not a lot of margin for error. I’m kind of hoping that someone else does a low fuel run on Thursday and the price eases a touch.

Of much more interest to me is Lewis Hamilton. The [still] young Briton has an absolutely astonishing record around his favourite circuit. In five races here (F3, GP2 and F1) he has four wins and a second. McLaren have an equally strong record here, winning three of the last four races and five of the last nine.

This season has been tough for Hamilton, but there is almost universal acknowledgement that it is the car and not the driver at fault. At times this season the McLaren Mercedes has looked well-balanced and drivable, just painfully slow. No racetrack in the world will reward a slow car, but Monaco may just be the place where the penalty is felt least.

Hamilton is available at 16/1 to win on Sunday with both Coral and Totesport and I feel that there is plenty of scope for this price to shorten throughout the weekend.

Practically every team brings upgraded packages to Barcelona, and given how close the cars have been running pace-wise, it’s not impossible that there will be a few surprises this weekend. I’m therefore inclined to take it easy stakes-wise, whilst still believing that the current front-runners can reasonably be expected to deliver.

Again, I’m not convinced that the advantage the Brawn GP cars have over the field is accurately reflected in the various race markets. Indeed, I’m of the opinion that the Red Bulls are probably now bang-on the pace of the Brawn and at the available odds, my plays this weekend are based around Vettel, but mainly Webber.

Totesport are taking a bit of a chance on the Aussie in the Win market, in my opinion. Webber can backed at 20/1 for the race win, compared to mere 4/1 about his team-mate. Whilst Vettel has clearly delivered more than Webber so far this year, the price differential is a nonsense, because there simply isn’t that much between them; and 20/1 is simply too big to ignore. At worst, we should be able to lay the Australian at much shorter during the race.

I think that Webber can be in the mix from the outset, as he is a great qualifier: and I’ve taken the 14/1 available about him getting Pole Position. Although he has yet to finish in front of his team-mate in Quali this season, it has tended to be very close after fuel correction and it’s again a case of taking 14/1 over 4/1.

To round-off, I’ve done the pair reversed in the Pole/Win markets at 33/1 (Webber/Vettel) and 50/1 (Vettel/Webber).

The Brawns will be a big danger, no doubt, but I just feel that the RBR will be well-suited to this circuit, where areodynamic performance is so critical.

My only roll of the dice in terms of a ’surprise’, is in the Q3 market, where I’ve taken SkyBet’s 6/1 and 7/1 respectively about Buemi and Bourdais. The latter has made some positive noises about the updates they have on the car for Spain, and Buemi has already proven he can muscle the motor into Q3.

It’s a Red-Bull-arama for me this weekend.

No, not Henry or Messi for a change; I’m looking at the Win, Pole and Fastest Lap market. There is definitely something about the Circuit de Catalunya that allows one driver to dominate a weekend. Since 1997, one driver has claimed all three prizes on no less than seven occasions:

Hakkinen in 1998, Schumacher in 2001, 2002 and 2004, Alonso in 2006, Massa in 2007 and Raikkonen in 2008.

In that twelve-year run, only once has the driver on pole failed to go on and win the race!

Sky Bet are offering 9/1 and 14/1 about Button and Vettel respectively repeating the feat this year. For a different angle, Expekt will give you 19/20 that the Pole Sitter wins the race regardless of who it may be. Anyone worried about this year’s regulations can wait until the fuel weights are out on Saturday night. The best prices about a race win will be long gone, but there may be some value left in the Fastest Lap market.

Trying to spot a driver in control of the track during practice (always a risky strategy) at least has the potential to pay dividends this weekend.