2008 showed just how far Massa has come. From his drive-fast-crash-faster days at Sauber and his year out of the sport, in 2006 he managed to prize two wins away from his illustrious team-mate Michael Schumacher. 2007 brought more joy, with a further three victories (and a yielded second at Brazil). 2008 saw Massa mature and with it collect a very impressive six victories and mount a title challenge.

So what will 2010 hold? Everything seems to be indicating that it will be a tight campaign, with a whole heap of drivers competing for victories. The good news for Massa is that it appears that his Ferrari is right up there at the front in terms of pace.

If we assume that Felipe will show no effect of his injury – which I think that we have to given that he completed more testing mileage than anyone – how many races can he win this year? The calendar now stands at nineteen races, so there will be plenty of opportunities.

Bwin are offering odds-against (11/10) that it will be three or more. Given his progress through 2006 to 2008 and relative to his team-mate (who would have to win five races for you to collect at odds-on), I think that is the best price I have seen so far this season.

It’s only the first week in March and I’m starting slowly, but 2010 is off and running…

Image reproduced courtesy of Mark McArdle under these terms.

I remain firmly in the camp that believes that anything that takes place in a test session should be taken with a hearty pinch of salt – certainly when trying to establish a measure of relative performance. However when I look back at 2009, I can’t fail to notice how dismissive I was of Jenson Button’s value in the drivers’ championship markets (I backed Vettel…) despite the weeks of publicity that his Brawn team had been generating from their testing performances. Is there a lesson to be learned here?

That question has been fuelled by some of the excellent long run analysis that has been carried out by various commentators – perhaps best by VivaF1. However I remain wary of trying to draw conclusions from specific data from specific sessions. Instead I thought it would be interesting to look at how the market has interpreted pre-season testing.

To do this I have looked at the respective odds of all of the main title contenders and how they have changed as the tests have passed. In theory, these prices should represent the collective wisdom and opinion of many, many people; some of whom will have digested every piece of published analysis, some of whom will be privy to inside information and some who have just lapped up any PR buzz. Any which way, I can think of no more accurate barometer of the likely chances of the individual drivers.

The below graph tracks the highest price that each driver was available to be backed on Betfair throughout the day of each of the testing milestones. The final price snapshot was taken at 17:00 GMT following the conclusion of pre-season testing.

Deductions

As has been widely reported, Ferrari appear to be in a strong position. Fernando Alonso has consolidated his position as outright favourite for the driver’s crown with his odds now 29% lower than they were in January. With exactly the same percentage change, those fancying Felipe Massa must be feeling a lot more confident.

The other clear winner has been Red Bull. Both Vettel (-21% change) and Webber (-10%) have clearly been impressing punters with their testing performances.

Over at McLaren, Hamilton’s price has eased as testing has gone on (+10%), whilst Jenson Button’s support has remained fairly constant (-3%). It all seems pretty calm. With Mercedes launching their own team and Ferrari stirring the pot like only they can, I wonder whether McLaren are enjoying this period of being, relatively speaking, out of the spotlight.

Speaking of Mercedes, it is clear that this is the team that has suffered the most in the public’s opinion throughout the month of February. The long run analysis that I mentioned earlier hasn’t really shown them to be massively off the pace whilst Brawn and Schumacher are far too wily to reveal their hand at this stage of the season. Regardless, the perception – partly fuelled by Schumacher’s comments – is that they are a few tenths shy of their rivals. This has seen Michael Schumacher and Nico Rosberg’s price increase by a whopping 67% and 79% respectively.

Conclusion

If you go back to the old adage that pre-season analysis is meaningless, then the conclusion would have to be that the value in the market now lies in the two German drivers. Their price has rocketed, based on a whole heap of unknowns. But then what would that be other than analysis…

Image reproduced courtesy of slitz under these terms.

I’m very much operating under the principle that “today is another day” and I’m looking to forgive a couple of disappointments in yesterday’s rain. This had lead me to the following:

Giancarlo Fisichella to finish in the points – 7/1+ Betfair

The standout feature about this bet for me is how well Fisichella has improved from poor grid positions already this season. In the fourteen races in which the Italian has been classified, he has made up a total of fifty-one places. That is second only to Timo Glock in the field and we know how much praise the German has received for his race drives this season. It equates to an average of 3.64 places gained per race and whilst that won’t be enough to see him into the points alone, we must factor in a) retirements and b) that it is an average and he hasn’t always had the entire field in front of him. Since Fisi moved to Ferrari that average has remained constant (3.66).

The other thing that I like, is that twentieth place on the grid is not representative of his Ferrari’s pace; his teammate managing a very credible fifth placed start with the same package. Giancarlo made a mistake in the wet, pure and simple: however with fourteen classified finishes this season he is one of the best in the field at getting the car home. More inclement weather wouldn’t necessary discourage me either, as he generally has a good wet weather pedigree and more turmoil in the race is likely to help rather than hinder his cause.

He has a fast car, KERS, a tank full to the brim and a point to prove. This is my bet of the weekend.

Lewis Hamilton to finish in the points – 6/4+ Betfair

Whilst the man from Stevenage doesn’t boast such an impressive places gained per race statistic as Giancarlo Fisichella (just 0.38), it must be put in the context of his qualifying. Three pole positions in the last five races have not left him much room for improvement! Equally his grid slot owes more his car’s inability to perform in the conditions than any individual error. I’m essentially backing the McLaren mechanic’s ability to give him a car more suitably set up to today’s conditions.

Very differently from last year, the real pressure is off Hamilton and with his KERS, his love for overtaking and crucially a track that permits it, I think he’ll fancy a charge through the slower cars ahead of him on the grid. Certainly Martin Whitmarsh will have half an eye on Jarno Trulli’s position at the front of the grid and will be urging Hamilton to attempt to pick up just a few points to keep the Japanese team at arms-length in the constructors battle.

Good luck.

Image reproduced courtesy of Xraver under these terms.

This was a bet that I liked post-qualifying last year and following the Spaniard’s second place finish, he is now sitting on five podiums from his last six (of seven) starts at Interlagos. With Button occupying a similar position to Hamilton last year, in that winning is not as important as simply collecting some points, a similar bet looks a good place to start the weekend.

Fernando Alonso can be backed at 6/1 with several firms to finish on the podium.

Speaking of Jenson Button: It is a while since the BrawnGP has dominated a race weekend; but if it did, then Button at 14/1 is a much more attractive proposition than Barrichello at 8/1. Food for thought…

Image reproduced courtesy of Ann64 under these terms.

Looking at the ten races held here that span the years from 1997 to 2006 is quite revealing: The domination of the premier drivers – Schumacher, Hakkinen and more recently Raikkonen and Alonso – in all of the win, pole and fastest lap markets leads me to believe that we should focus any betting at the head of the market again this weekend.

One other significant statistic that is apparent over that ten-year period is that the deployment of the Safety Car at Suzuka is an extremely rare occurence. Nine-and-a-half dry races along with the track configuration has resulted in a limited number of crashes and has prevented any debris from obstructing the racing line.

It is always worth keeping half an eye on the weather forecasts for Sunday, but that apart, Sky Bet’s 8/11 for No Safety Car looks too high based purely on historical events.

Image reproduced courtesy of Mark McArdle under these terms.

All of Brawn, Red Bull, McLaren, Ferrari, and very likely Force India will provide extremely tough opposition, and it would be no surprise to see BMW and (to a lesser extent, Toyota) also give the team some headaches in Qualifying.

In recent races, the Williams has looked a pale shadow of the car which started the season, and I think Nico has a major job on to make it into Q3. I think his unrepresentative race here last year is helping to dictate his price, but he is no odds-on poke, as far as I’m concerned.

Renault’s director of engineering Pat Symonds:

“The gain in lap time of running KERS in Monza is likely to be around a quarter of a second and it’s worth even more in qualifying as you can do one release before you start a timed lap and another release during the timed lap.”

It is interesting to hear Renault’s opinion as they have fitted KERS to their cars for the first time since Bahrain, taking the total number of KERS runners on the grid to six. In recent weeks we have seen drivers fail to qualify on pole, but make up ground at the start using the device. With six drivers now gunning for these places, I feel that there will again be more emphasis on grid position. For that reason, it the qualifying market that I first want to concentrate on.

Of the six drivers drivers fitted with KERS, I am immediately going to rule out half of them: Fisichella as he is new to the car, Grosjean as he is still new to the sport and Kovalainen because it is so rare that he gets the better of his team-mate. This leaves the following three drivers as my contenders for Pole Position:

Lewis Hamilton – 4/1 Favourite
Hamilton has overtaken Vettel at the head of the market as the odds compilers have cottoned on to the KERS-factor. With the McLaren showing a resurgence in form in the last few Grand Prix, their strong recent record around this circuit, Mercedes power and Hamilton’s hunger evident once again, I make him a worthy favourite and still worth a bet at 4/1.

Kimi Raikkonen – 15/2
It has been difficult to read the pace of the Ferrari over recent races and there is the suspicion that the victory last time out came despite them not possessing the fastest car on the grid. In addition there remains a question about the car’s fluidity over the kerbs which as ever will be a challenge at Monza. It is clear that they are there or thereabouts in terms of speed, however Raikkonen has recently raced better than he has qualified. For that reason I’m going to pass over the Finn this time.

Fernando Alonso – 14/1
With Renault’s World Motor Sport Council hearing looming, how must Fernando Alonso wish that he could get his dream move to Ferrari sown up. Monza is a circuit where the Spaniard has excelled in the past – winning from pole position in 2007 – and he’ll be looking to repeat that feat this weekend in front of the Tifosi. With KERS fitted again, I take hope from the fact that Alonso has not been averse to the odd glory run in qualifying in the past when he has a point to prove. 14/1 at PaddyPower with each-way terms looks a cracking bet to me.

The Red Bulls of Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber should not be discounted at a circuit where they are expected to perform. I’m going to take the chance though that on Saturday at least, it is KERS that will have the final say.

What I am going to do, is take the opportunity to defend this bet with some big price outsiders. Currently on offer, to secure a podium are:

Lewis Hamilton – 9/1 (Totesport)
Fernando Alonso – 28/1 (Bet365 and Totesport)
Adrian Sutil – 33/1 (Boylesports)

All three drivers failed to make Q3, which does mean that they can run an optimum fuel strategy in the race. This in turn increases the chance that they can benefit from any Safety Car period. All three drivers have in the past put in strong performances in wet weather – which should never be ruled out in the Ardennes mountains. Last but not least, Spa is a circuit where it is possible to overtake.

Individually, I also believe they have things going for them despite their disappointing Saturday:

Lewis Hamilton – Has KERS fitted, which will lend itself to the overtaking that he clearly enjoys so much. Equally in the longer running in Friday’s FP2 he was able to top the time-sheets which offers some encouragement.

Fernando Alonso – Less obvious as to why the Spaniard will have a good weekend, but if the weather and Safety Cars start playing a part then there is no-one that I would want more trying to exploit the situation – especially at 28/1

Adrian Sutil – Nobody will be more disappointed than the German with how Qualifying panned out, but if you are going to miss out on Q3 then eleventh position is the place to be. Sutil has a car underneath him that was fast enough to take Pole Position, but has none of the fuel compromises that his team-mate will have to deal with. Over the weekend he has shown great pace in the first and third sectors that hopefully makes him less vulnerable to the KERS cars than others in the field.

None of these bets are mortgage-jobs, but they do offer some protection to any bets that have already been struck in case the race turns out as unexpectedly as qualifying did.

In the last ten F1 races at Spa, six have been affected by a Safety Car period. In those races, the Mercedes tin-top has been deployed no fewer than nine times. In fact five of those have been in wet conditions and a respectable four when the track has been dry.

Whichever way you look at those stats, it is difficult to make the case for an appearance this year anything but odds-on (the degree to which is the detail). However Sportingbet obviously think differently and are offering odds of 11/10 that Bernd Mayländer will be called in to action. In pure value terms, that looks worth taking.

He comes into the weekend in the best form that his Ferrari team have shown all season. Consecutive podiums in Budapest and Valencia building on his podium in Monaco at the end of May. It looks like it is the top three that the Finn is targeting again this weekend:

“The main goal is to hold the standard of the last races, which means that we have to try to get on the podium again”

One factor that should help Kimi this weekend is the KERS device that is fitted to his car. Whilst Kimi has shown its strength from the start-line in recent weeks, it will be the drag up through Eau Rouge and the long straight that follows where the extra power could prove crucial for both overtaking and defending. In addition, this should allow the Ferrari to run with more downforce than their rivals which could prove crucial around the back of the circuit.

Providing that Ferrari can get their set-up right – include the weight distribution compromises that running with KERS will force them into – I predict that this will be their strongest race of the season away from the slow/street circuits where they have thrived so far. Certainly with the car in the hands of their lead driver anyway.

Given his record at the circuit and with Ferrari taking five victories in the last six races here, it would seem churlish not to take some of the 11/1 that Stan James are offering for a Raikkonen victory. My main bet though will be at 5/2 for him to take a podium position, which given the car’s performance relative to its competitors this season, seems a far more realistic proposition.