Safety Car

Whilst the wide-open spaces of an airfield, might not seem to offer the risk of collisions leaving debris on the racing line, historically the driver of the Safety Car has been far from redundant at the Northamptonshire venue. Five out of the last ten races here have seen the Safety Car deployed, with it making two appearances in the dry race of 2003.

The new layout with an additional long straight followed by the tight entry into Brooklands, will give another situation on the track where there will be large closing speeds. As we have seen in practice and qualifying, there is a huge spread in terms of pace between the frontrunners and the back-markers.

Seeing the Safety Car on Sunday is far from certain, but the 6/4 about its deployment on offer at Sky Bet looks just a little on the large side to leave alone completely.

Winning Margin

Not a market that I usually get heavily involved in, but it is worth noting when something stands out. The average winning margin at Silverstone in the last ten years is 15.99 seconds. Even discounting Lewis Hamilton’s runaway victory in 2008 only sees that average drop to 10.15 seconds. SkyBet (again) are offering 8/11 that the winning margin will be greater than six seconds. That looks fair.

Fastest Lap

Surely a competition between the Red Bulls, but this season it has been Webber – not pole-sitter Vettel – who has been getting the job done; outpacing the young German in six out of the nine races. The 4/1 that was on offer before Friday practice is long gone, but definitely one to keep an eye on in the Betfair market.

Image reproduced courtesy of junafani.

Despite this, the top of the fastest lap market continues to be dominated by the usual suspects from Red Bull, McLaren and Ferrari. Prior to qualifying yesterday, Kubica was just seventh favourite in the market at 16/1. That represented outstanding value about a car sporting some impressive new aerodynamic upgrades.

When backing drivers to set the fastest lap, I much prefer to buy their performance on the spread markets rather than backing them outright. This introduces an otherwise missing each-way element. Frustratingly the spread firms steadfastly refuse to price up the market prior to qualifying – presumably running scared of a lack of information.

Kubica has shortened post-Qualifying to a best-priced 14/1 (fifth-favourite) to set the fastest lap of the race in Valencia. SportingIndex have priced their spread at 7-10 (also fifth-favourite). As disappointing as it is to lose this value waiting for a market to be created, the shift seems to reflect Kubica’s strong Q2 performance which further indicates his pace going in to the race.

We should also not disregard his team-mate Petrov, who was responsible for the fastest race lap in Turkey. Considered by all to be an outsider, a top-ten qualifying position on a circuit that he excelled at in GP2 is a solid performance. Petrov is a quite ridiculous 100/1 with Bet365 to set the fastest lap. Again, it is such a pity there is no each-way element to these fixed-price markets! SportingIndex’s quote of 1-3 might just offer some value though.

However you choose to play this fastest lap market, good luck if you get involved.

Image reproduced courtesy of Richard Munckton and Chubbennaitor under these terms.

It is somewhat surprising therefore, to see Vettel and Webber just second and fourth favourites to qualify fastest this weekend. McLaren have announced that their diffuser upgrade will not be ready until Silverstone, so presumably a switch to the softer compound tyres is all that is needed by Red Bull to reverse the positions from Canada? With dry weather forecast all weekend and the track expected to rubber-in, I can’t see why Red Bull would opt for any tyre other than the one that will allow them to control the race from the front; especially at a circuit renowned for its lack of overtaking opportunities.

Ferrari on the other hand, are bringing their diffuser upgrade and there has been much speculation in the press as to the level of advantage that it will bring. Fernando Alonso has been making positive noises as you would expect – possibly looking to direct the focus of the Italian press to the car’s previous under-performance and away from his mistakes – of which they have been so critical.

The fact remains that Ferrari will need a large performance step to challenge in Qualifying, where they have previously been uncompetitive relative to their race pace. Will this diffuser upgrade be enough to haul in the Red Bulls? It certainly seems to be the question that is shaking up the market.

Finally, one thing that seems to be being overlooked in the clamour around the Ferrari upgrades is the possibility that Red Bull will run their own take on the F-duct. It is planned that they will use it in Friday practice and if it is deemed successful then presumably they will leave it fitted for Qualifying, giving them an extra boost down Valencia’s long straights. That could temper any gains that Ferrari achieve.

As I type, Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber are trading at 4.6 and 6.6 respectively to take Pole Position on Betfair. As predicting who has the upper-hand in the team has been difficult all season, I am happy to simply dutch the two drivers and take my chance that one of them gets the job done. That gives me an effective bet of:

Red Bull to take Pole Position @ 2.71 (Betfair)

Those odds compare somewhat favourably with the best available for that bet elsewhere (2.4 @ Bwin). Good luck.

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The reason for my confidence is simple. The tight walls around the Canadian circuit simply leave nowhere for debris to go in the event of a collision, making a safety car deployment almost inevitable. Throw in ‘Champions Wall’ and the fact that we have the biggest field for years and I will be shocked if we have seventy laps of green flag racing.

If anyone spots any tasty prices, please post them in the comments (after you have had your share of course!). Good luck.

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Other than the Alonso situation, qualifying played out as most expected and doesn’t appear to have created many extraordinary betting opportunities for the race. I expect backing Hamilton will be popular, although personally I have concerns both about his tyre-management and the record that pole-sitters have around here.

Turkey – on the face of it – doesn’t appear to be a circuit where historic statistics create any angles. Safety cars, retirements, winning margin et al all look unremarkable in averageness. So where is there potential for the grid order to change?

The driver that interests me the most today is Jenson Button. Last year’s winner, the Brit has an impressive record of never having finished behind his teammate in a Turkish Grand Prix and equally never failing to finish. Whilst it was Lewis Hamilton that was grabbing all of the headlines yesterday by splitting the two Red Bulls, Button quietly slipped into fourth place on the grid.

Whilst Turkey is renowned for being tough on tyres, particularly through the long turn eight, Jenson is equally renowned for his ability to look after them. There could be two crucial stages in the race for Button, both at the end of the first stint on the softer tyres and as the end of the race approaches.

The other thing that is interesting me about Button is his rivals. The threat from behind is diminished through Alonso’s absence and whilst Massa should not be discounted at a circuit he relishes, the Ferrari has not looked on the pace this weekend. In front of him, Button has three very quick cars, but with the Red Bulls still looking far from bulletproof and the possibility of fireworks as Hamilton attacks on lap one, I think Button has a decent chance of a podium today.

BetFred are a standout 15/8 about the man from Frome climbing the podium steps. I’m happy to get involved at those odds.

One other small bet that is interesting me is for Vettel to lead at the end of the first lap. As the two Red Bulls have not locked out the front row this weekend, I imagine that there have been fewer ‘formation-flying’ conversations than usual in the team motor-home. With Webber likely to be occupied with defending from Hamilton and both the Brit and the Aussie with reputations for not giving an inch, there might just be a sneaky opportunity for Vettel to capitalise.

At 16/1 on Betfair, not a lot of stake is required to generate an interest.

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Unfortunately, rather than trust the statistics, the presence of so many cars, so many rookies, such speed differential and the absence of fuel-strategy overtaking makes me think that its deployment is inevitable. I’m going to leave the market alone, but I’ll be kicking myself at 3pm if there has been no appearance.

Of course a Safety Car period does denote one near-certainty, that there has been a retirement. Fernando Alonso was quoted yesterday stating that he expects there to be around eight to ten retirements. That feels about right to me and suggests that the bookmakers have got their prices fairly spot-on. There is no obvious value that I can see in the market.

Eight to ten retirements would put a still-running Alonso on the brink of the points. Even just passing the real back-markers and the simplest tyre strategy should be enough to seem him finish the weekend with something to show in the world championship standings. It makes Extrabet’s 11/8 for him to finish in the points the standout bet for me this weekend.

Throw in the confusion of a safety car period or two and the likelihood of him sliding through the field once the leaders come round (as the cars that are pulling over make the mistake of assuming his red Ferrari is one of them) and I think he can aim higher than tenth. Michael Schumacher’s charge from 22nd to 5th in 2006 sets the precedent. Vettel achieved the same from 19th just a couple of years ago.

Alonso had shown real pace around here up until his accident and you can be sure the Ferrari strategists have been working as hard as the Ferrari mechanics have been since yesterday morning. Alonso has shown already this season that he is the ultimate opportunist, demonstrated by his pass on Massa in the pitlane. I’d expect him to take any similar opportunities that present themselves in this race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pop-up the top six, equally I couldn’t make a case for the 18/1 about a podium on Betfair being unreasonable.

Let’s hope it is interesting.

Image reproduced courtesy of aimelaime.

Sebastian Vettel was starting to get the upper hand on Mark Webber at Red Bull. When they have both finished races this season it is the German that has crossed the line first. When Vettel has failed to finish, Webber has failed to capitalise. Prior to today, he had three poles to the Australian’s one. The return to Europe is seen by many as the start of the season proper. Vettel will not be happy to have come off second best. Turn one is one of the few passing places on the circuit and once the rhythm of the race is established, Vettel knows that putting a move on his own team-mate will be discouraged from the pit wall. A pass at the first corner may represent his best chance to win the race. Equally Webber is not known for giving ground. Could there be fireworks?

In third is Lewis Hamilton. Whilst also involved in his own inter-team battle for supremacy, Hamilton knows that the Red Bulls are the biggest threat to his championship charge. Splitting the pair (or better) is the only chance Hamilton and McLaren have of not seeing the Red Bull pair scampering off into the distance. The Brit is clearly thinking along the same lines:

“Anyway, third on the grid is almost as good as pole position here, if not a little bit better: it’s a long way down to the first corner, and you can get a good draft and pass people. So I’m hoping to get a decent start, make good progress early on”

In fourth place is local hero Fernando Alonso, another thinking about his start:

“Tomorrow, it will be very important to get a good start: recently they have not gone so well for me and so this would be just the right moment to get one!”

Elsewhere on the grid, any driver knows that unless he fancies staring at the diffuser of the car in front of him on the grid all afternoon, making places of the start is the only thing to do. The raft of FIA penalties handed out his weekend has also gone some way to mixing the grid up from an order representative of true pace.

Seven of the previous twelve races here in Barcelona have seen at least one first lap retirement. Last year Trulli, Buemi, Bourdais and Sutil all failed to complete a tour. The year before it was Vettel and Sutil again. It is admittedly no Monaco or Montreal, but a tight-ish turn one sees the cars bunch together before turn two. There is plenty of scope for collisions.

I can’t help but feel that the larger field this year could contribute towards first lap problems, if only because there are more individual positions being jockeyed for. Twice already this season four cars have failed to finish the first lap.

So what is the best way to play this market?

The few firms that are offering a market which let you bet on there being at least one first lap retirement are not giving much away with odds-on prices. Therefore I’m going to get creative. Given that most first lap accidents involve the coming together of at least two cars, dutch Exactly Two Retirements (11/2 William Hill) with Three Or More Retirements (9/2 Paddypower) to give a bet of Two Or More Retirements at 2/1.

Equally, given the competition at the front of the field, Bet365 are offering specials on individual drivers failing to complete the first lap. Bizarrely Mark Webber is not one of those quoted, but you can dutch Vettel, Hamilton or Alonso to retire on the first lap at 6/1. At that price I’m interested to get involved just in case there is any hot-headedness.

Good luck.

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This has manifested itself in the teams changing their approach to Friday practice; with more emphasis on getting the car performing in qualifying set-up. Everyone is trying to close the gap on Saturday to Red Bull. Red Bull themselves responded by topping the time-sheets in Free Practice Two.

There is no need to read too much into practice times though or to try and predict the qualifying winner. Instead, history tells a story that gives us an opportunity to take a position on the weekend. In the last ten races held at this circuit in Barcelona, the driver starting from pole position has won the race nine times. If you go back further, the trend continues.

That begs the question, why are Bwin.com offering 11/10 on the pole-sitter winning the race? I can think of three reasons:

1.Their odds compilers are being extremely shrewd and believe that the chance of rain on Sunday is higher than the 20% currently being predicted by Weather.com.
2.It is a stock price.
3.It is an error.

Given the dozens (if not hundreds) of F1 markets that Bwin offer over the course of a race weekend and factoring in that they are the only firm offering this market (to my knowledge), my money would be that it is number two above at best, if not more likely number three.

Another way to look at this: will the driver starting on pole be odds-against for a race win when the markets form post-qualifying? With no light-fuel glory runs possible under this years regulations, the chances of the fastest car not being on pole are greatly reduced. If – for example – Vettel sets the pace on Saturday, I would expect his price for Sunday to be heavily odds-on.

11/10 just looks too big. Good luck.

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• http://www.flutterf1.com/
• http://www.bettingzone.co.uk/formula1/betting/
• http://betting.betfair.com/betting/formula-one/

All of the authors have my utmost respect. None of them have tempted me to part with cash this weekend. They are all sites worth plugging in to your RSS reader though. Not every weekend will be like this one. Roll on Spain. Oh…

Image reproduced courtesy of Emily Walker under these terms.