F1Punter

When the Formula 1 circus last rolled up to the Nürburgring, the previous ten visits had seen the Safety Car deployed just twice. Once in the wet of 1999 and once in the dry of 2006. The top price for a no-show was 8/11 and I was happy to take that. Unfortunately the rain came again and following a crazy opening to the the race, by the third lap my bet was up in smoke.

It has played host to the Grand Prix of Luxembourg and the European Grand Prix in the past, but this year – badged as the German Grand prix – the modern circuit retains the same characteristics: wide run-off areas and half an eye on safety. The track’s layout should mean that it is difficult to cause Safety Car inducing blockages.

Weather forecasting has always struck me as more art than science, with all the creative licence that entails. Long-distance forecasting even more so. But today at least, Weather.com is predicting a zero-chance of precipitation this weekend. That would be nice.

Perhaps bookmakers have been swayed by the fact that Bernd Maylander has been called in to action on his last two visits here. Perhaps, by the fact that most of the betting public prefer to bet on a positive outcome rather than a negative one. Or perhaps it is through no more than lazy odds-compiling and being content with a margin. Whatever the cause, all of the firms quoting appear to have priced the market as follows:

Safety Car to be Deployed
5/6 Yes
5/6 No

Even ignoring the wet weather factor, my records (which go back to 1997) show that only three Safety Cars have been deployed in six-hundred and ninety-four laps of racing here. I’m happy to take 5/6 that we’ll get through another sixty without one.