Comments on: Hamilton to take Pole in France http://f1punter.com/2008/06/16/hamilton-to-take-pole-in-france/ Formula 1: Against The Odds Tue, 18 Nov 2008 15:14:14 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=MU hourly 1 By: John http://f1punter.com/2008/06/16/hamilton-to-take-pole-in-france/#comment-1264 John Sat, 21 Jun 2008 08:55:08 +0000 http://f1punter.wordpress.com/?p=129#comment-1264 This is something I’ve been scratching my head over all week. I’m still not decided on what the best option for Lewis would be – it could be that 4.4 are great odds if Lewis does go light so don’t be to hard on yourself! You are right about McLarens pace as well, they look quicker than I expected them to be. I was thinking maybe BMW would be quicker than them but it looks like a fight between Ferrari and McLaren now. This is something I’ve been scratching my head over all week. I’m still not decided on what the best option for Lewis would be – it could be that 4.4 are great odds if Lewis does go light so don’t be to hard on yourself! You are right about McLarens pace as well, they look quicker than I expected them to be. I was thinking maybe BMW would be quicker than them but it looks like a fight between Ferrari and McLaren now.

]]> By: Grasshopper http://f1punter.com/2008/06/16/hamilton-to-take-pole-in-france/#comment-1263 Grasshopper Fri, 20 Jun 2008 11:22:04 +0000 http://f1punter.wordpress.com/?p=129#comment-1263 Hi John - thanks for taking the trouble to reply. To be fair, you point out the flaws in my argument nicely, though it's equally fair to say that the Macca has looked a lot closer to the Ferrari on overall pace at the fast tracks, than it did last year, so it might not pay to draw too many assumptions from last years race. Regardless, the strategy call is marginal enough, and recommending the bet at 5/2 was probably not a master-stroke. I've been dipping in again at up to 4.4, but even that looks a little thin, following Massa's performance in P1 this morning. It might well be that the Ferrari's are simply going to blitz the McLaren's on pace here, and that even a lower-fuel strategy for Q3 might not be enough. I've not exactly written the bets off, but I'm going to need lots to fall into place to collect, I reckon. Massa's performance hasn't exactly bolstered my confidence in my Raikkonen Win bets either. Hopefully Kimi can show his class in P2 this afternoon, and help me breath a little easier. Good luck with your selections this weekend. Cheers Grasshopper Hi John - thanks for taking the trouble to reply.

To be fair, you point out the flaws in my argument nicely, though it’s equally fair to say that the Macca has looked a lot closer to the Ferrari on overall pace at the fast tracks, than it did last year, so it might not pay to draw too many assumptions from last years race.

Regardless, the strategy call is marginal enough, and recommending the bet at 5/2 was probably not a master-stroke. I’ve been dipping in again at up to 4.4, but even that looks a little thin, following Massa’s performance in P1 this morning.

It might well be that the Ferrari’s are simply going to blitz the McLaren’s on pace here, and that even a lower-fuel strategy for Q3 might not be enough. I’ve not exactly written the bets off, but I’m going to need lots to fall into place to collect, I reckon.

Massa’s performance hasn’t exactly bolstered my confidence in my Raikkonen Win bets either. Hopefully Kimi can show his class in P2 this afternoon, and help me breath a little easier.

Good luck with your selections this weekend.

Cheers
Grasshopper

]]> By: John http://f1punter.com/2008/06/16/hamilton-to-take-pole-in-france/#comment-1259 John Mon, 16 Jun 2008 18:06:24 +0000 http://f1punter.wordpress.com/?p=129#comment-1259 Sorry, make that 2nd behind one heavier Ferrari! Whoops. Sorry, make that 2nd behind one heavier Ferrari! Whoops.

]]> By: John http://f1punter.com/2008/06/16/hamilton-to-take-pole-in-france/#comment-1258 John Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:43:17 +0000 http://f1punter.wordpress.com/?p=129#comment-1258 I was thinking Mclaren would want to go for a heavier fuel load because of Alonso’s poor showing last year (starting 10th on 16 laps of fuel). Having just read a comment from Lewis along the lines of ‘the pit lanes short here so it gives us possibilities’ you may be right and they could go light. The major concern here though is last year Lewis adopted a very low fuel load (turned to a 3 stopper in race) and still qualified 3rd behind two heavier Ferrari’s. McLaren look quicker this year but all it takes is one Ferrari and a BMW to have low-ish fuel and he could be 13th at best. It’s really tough one to call. I was thinking Mclaren would want to go for a heavier fuel load because of Alonso’s poor showing last year (starting 10th on 16 laps of fuel). Having just read a comment from Lewis along the lines of ‘the pit lanes short here so it gives us possibilities’ you may be right and they could go light.

The major concern here though is last year Lewis adopted a very low fuel load (turned to a 3 stopper in race) and still qualified 3rd behind two heavier Ferrari’s. McLaren look quicker this year but all it takes is one Ferrari and a BMW to have low-ish fuel and he could be 13th at best. It’s really tough one to call.

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