After highlighting a trend at the last race of the pole-sitter going on to take victory and then not taking advantage because of a prohibitively short price, I am reluctant to make the same mistake again.

With his predicted main rival Kimi Raikkonen starting from fourth place on the dirty side of the grid and the much-publicised two wins from two poles around here, Massa certainly looks well placed to take victory. BMW appear to be off the pace this weekend, so it looks like only a McLaren or a lack of reliability can deny him. Although Felipe does have a DNF to his name this season, the traditional reliability of the Ferrari means that this cannot play a significant part in our calculations – perhaps even more so with this rumour circulating!

It is also true that the two McLaren cars have looked a touch more competitive this season in qualifying trim than with their race setup. Hamilton has a net-loss of four places from his qualifying positions to his race finishing positions, whilst Kovalainen has only improved from his starting position in Malaysia.

Anybody looking to back Felipe Massa for race victory tomorrow should do so with BWin at 3/5 (1.60). This is a fair bit longer than he is available on the exchanges (which is rare) even before commission is taken into account. In the UK, Ladbrokes standout at 4/7 (1.57) whilst BlueSQ who were also 4/7 after Qualifiying have been forced to cut him into 8/15 (1.53).