This time last year I spotted a trend in the winning margin here at the Circuit de Catalunya that I thought was significant. I still hold that opinion and undeterred by either that race or last time out in Bahrain I am prepared to have another crack at this market.

The most likely scenario for me in today’s race is that Kimi Raikkonen scampers away from the pack and that after the pit stops shake out Felipe Massa will be in second place. From that point forward I expect Ferrari to manage the race and so whilst there might not be a huge-margin winner, equally I don’t expect any pressure to be applied to the lead driver. In the circumstance that one of the Ferrari drivers encounters problems, I expect the other to be significantly clear of the field.

Bwin are offering 9/10 that the winning margin will be six seconds or more. SportingIndex have priced their spread at 9 – 12. Those of you familiar will cross fixed odds/spreads arbitrage should be able to find something to work with in there. I am just going to keep it simple and back the over (which incidentally would have paid last year too).