F1Punter

Having been fortunate enough to walk the perimeter of the beautiful Spa-Francochamps, I have to say that it does not immediately strike you as the sort of circuit where the appearance of the Safety Car is inevitable.  It doesn’t have that concrete-wall enclosed feel of Montreal or Monaco and – despite its age – the majority of run-off areas are generous. Spend a little time watching Formula One cars racing there though and something quite different becomes apparent.

As we know, the circuit possesses some eye-wateringly fast corners. The sort where even the smallest mistake can lead to a catastrophic accident with resultant debris, despite been 100 yards from the scene of the accident, still deemed to be in the firing line of the next potential off.

Something else noticeable is the ability for F1 cars to overtake.  This clearly heightens the risk of there being a collision. I am increasingly coming to believe that at some circuits it is so drummed into drivers that overtaking is impossible that they do not even make the effort.  That is clearly not the case here.

Another variable to consider is the notoriously changeable weather.  Importantly, this is not just the possibility of rain, but also the possibility of unexpected rain and its ability to catch out the drivers.  It is often reported that it can be wet at one end of the seven kilometre long circuit whilst bathed in sunshine at the other.

Finally, although the circuit may not feel enclosed, there are narrow areas where recovery without the aid of the Safety Car is next to impossible; the pit straight, La Source hairpin and the run down to Eau Rouge being the section that immediately springs to mind.

All of this leads us to the fact that in the eight races held since 1997 (when my records begin) we have seen the appearance of the Safety Car nine times. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, have we failed to see a marshal hold out the SC board.

At this early stage of the week the markets are still forming, but regardless I am staggered to see both BWin and Expekt offering odds of 6/5 for the Safety Car to be deployed during the race. I would be amazed if this price holds until Sunday.

Will the Belgian Grand Prix be the fifth race of the 2007 season where we see the Safety Car? At those odds I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.