F1Punter

Going back to my Classified Information post earlier this week; I am going to take on Mark Webber in today’s race.

Lay Webber to be classified @ 1.45 Betfair

The Australian driver is facing 44 laps of this most demanding circuit knowing that his engine has already covered 219 laps in nine sessions across two Grand Prix weekends.  For a man that has retired five times this season already for purely mechanical reasons this cannot be a pleasurable thought.

Webber has raced at Spa three times in his F1 career and has retired twice.

Having been fortunate enough to walk the perimeter of the beautiful Spa-Francochamps, I have to say that it does not immediately strike you as the sort of circuit where the appearance of the Safety Car is inevitable.  It doesn’t have that concrete-wall enclosed feel of Montreal or Monaco and – despite its age – the majority of run-off areas are generous. Spend a little time watching Formula One cars racing there though and something quite different becomes apparent.

As we know, the circuit possesses some eye-wateringly fast corners. The sort where even the smallest mistake can lead to a catastrophic accident with resultant debris, despite been 100 yards from the scene of the accident, still deemed to be in the firing line of the next potential off.

Something else noticeable is the ability for F1 cars to overtake.  This clearly heightens the risk of there being a collision. I am increasingly coming to believe that at some circuits it is so drummed into drivers that overtaking is impossible that they do not even make the effort.  That is clearly not the case here.

Another variable to consider is the notoriously changeable weather.  Importantly, this is not just the possibility of rain, but also the possibility of unexpected rain and its ability to catch out the drivers.  It is often reported that it can be wet at one end of the seven kilometre long circuit whilst bathed in sunshine at the other.

Finally, although the circuit may not feel enclosed, there are narrow areas where recovery without the aid of the Safety Car is next to impossible; the pit straight, La Source hairpin and the run down to Eau Rouge being the section that immediately springs to mind.

All of this leads us to the fact that in the eight races held since 1997 (when my records begin) we have seen the appearance of the Safety Car nine times. Only twice, in 1999 and 2002, have we failed to see a marshal hold out the SC board.

At this early stage of the week the markets are still forming, but regardless I am staggered to see both BWin and Expekt offering odds of 6/5 for the Safety Car to be deployed during the race. I would be amazed if this price holds until Sunday.

Will the Belgian Grand Prix be the fifth race of the 2007 season where we see the Safety Car? At those odds I certainly wouldn’t bet against it.

Hot on the heels of Monza, focus switches to the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francochamps, everyone’s favourite F1 track. Well it would do except for the small matter of the World Motor Sport Council meeting on Thursday to decide the fate of McLaren, Ferrari and the World Championships (possibly).  However I am not going to let that distract me and instead I will look away from the big two teams in the hunt for value.

One of the things that I am looking forward to this coming weekend is seeing how the drivers cope with the revised layouts at the Bus Stop chicane and the La Source hairpin.  These parts of the circuit have undergone significant modification, hopefully in a bid to increase overtaking opportunities.

It is these changes that are the catalyst for my first bet of the week.  I recall a conversation that I had with Costanza around the time of the Spa test in early July, during which he pointed out that Robert Kubica had done a lot of strong laps for BMW Sauber while Nick Heidfeld was missing for all three days with a bad back. This he said may give the Pole an advantage when the two drivers first hit the track in Free Practice 1. Indeed Kubica clocked up 188 laps of the revised layout, posting the second fastest time on two out of the three days.

I have kept this in the back of mind ever since, but it was these driver preview quotes from autosport.com that really interested me:

Nick Heidfeld: “I am happy Spa is back on the calendar. I didn’t attend the test in July so for me the last time I was there was in 2004 and those days I was in a car which wasn’t competitive at all. It will be different this time. Although Spa isn’t too far from my home town of Mönchengladbach, I didn’t race there very often. The circuit wasn’t on the Formula Ford and Formula 3 calendar when I was racing, and I had to miss the 2005 Formula One race after I injured myself in a bicycle accident.”

Robert Kubica: “It will be very nice to race in Spa in Formula One for the first time, although I have raced in Formula 3 and Formula Renault. We had quite a good test there, but the weather, as always in Spa, will probably be unpredictable, so we have to see how things develop.”

Now Nick Heidfeld is an experienced driver and come the sessions that count I have no doubt that he will be fully dialled in to the circuit. Regardless, there is plenty in those quotes to suggest that Kubica will be more familiar with its unique demands straight out of the box.

It is important to remember that Sunday will just be Robert Kubica’s nineteenth Grand Prix start and that he is still familiarising himself with the job of being an F1 driver.  However, over the course of the last six race weekends the two BMW drivers have outpaced each other in Free Practice 1 three times apiece.  This strong performance from the youngster may be attributed in part to his return to more familiar circuits that he encountered at the end of last season.

Bwin as usual have their prices out early and pleasingly they make Robert Kubica the 6/5 outsider against his teammate to set the fastest time in Free Practice 1. That is big enough to interest me.

There has been plenty of coverage this week of the stresses and strains that Monza’s flat out lap puts on the engines of F1 cars.  However it was Norbert Haug’s comments about Monza and Spa together that has got me thinking about reliability:

“At around 80%, Monza has the highest full-throttle proportion per lap of all Formula 1 racetracks. However, the following race will challenge the engines even more. As scheduled, we will start Monza with a new engine in both cars which, according to the rules, is designed to be used in Spa as well. The combination of these two circuits is the highest expected strain for an engine so far since the new V8 engine generation has been introduced last year.”

The Monza circuit used to be a car-breaker in its own right.  Between 1997 and 2003 less than 60% of all the cars that lined up on the grid were not classified at the finish.  Recently things have improved and 2005 saw that most rare feat in F1: no retirements from the race.  2006 saw only five retirements and it is clear that engineers are coming to terms with its challenges.  Spa Francochamps however remains a unique test for both man and machine.

Obviously the drivers who are most at risk are those, like the McLaren pair, who barring any failure in Italy will be required to use the same engine for both races.  A quick look at the excellent La Canta Magnifico Blog shows us that fourteen drivers have a brand-new V8 for Monza: Alonso, Hamilton, Raikkonen, Massa, Fisichella, Kubica, Schumacher, Webber, Coulthard, Rosberg, Wurz, Vettel, Sutil and Sato.

Some of the names on that list initially strike me as more likely to suffer mechanical failure than others. Sorry Red Bull.

According to my records Mark Webber has retired five times this season through mechanical failure, with his teammate Coulthard following him three times. Kimi Raikkonen, Adrian Sutil and Takuma Sato have all retired twice due to car failure.  Admittedly these have not all been engine related, but as we have seen many times before in F1, the stresses caused through prolonged full throttle driving can often have a knock on effect on the durability of other components.

Many bookmakers offer markets for drivers not to be classified in a race and classification can be laid at the Betfair exchange.  I will be keeping a close eye on the prices of the above named in the run up to the Belgian Grand Prix.

Whilst trying not to become repetitive, I am surprised to see SportingBet offering the following prices for the Fastest Lap in Sunday’s race at Monza:

Kimi Raikkonen @ 7/4
Felipe Massa @ 11/4

The observant amongst you, or those that got the subtle clue from the title, will recognise the prices from my post prior to the Turkish GP.

Without going over the same reasons – and with the addition of Kimi’s liking for going quickly around here – I am confident of a repeat performance.