F1Punter

Following today’s dramatic qualifying session and as the market shakes itself out, there are some interesting prices on offer for tomorrow’s race. These are mainly as a result of the Lewis Hamilton will-he-won’t-he race question.  Both Hamilton and team principle Ron Dennis have been making upbeat comments about his likely participation, but nothing has been officially confirmed.

If Hamilton does race, then there is also the issue of whether he will start from tenth position on the grid or whether his car/engine is beyond repair and he is forced to start from the pit lane in the T-car.  As I understand it, in the case of the former, the Brit will be required to start the race with the fuel with which he was attempting to qualify.  If he starts from the pit lane then the team can choose his fuel load.

Both of these scenarios will hopefully allow him to demonstrate the overtaking with which he was synonymous in GP2.  He of course won both races in that class here last year after qualifying in third position. 

The importance of F1 qualifying at the Nurburgring is not clear-cut.  Only Michael Schumacher (twice) has taken race victory here from pole position in the last ten races. With at least a couple of recognised passing places on the circuit, I am not anticipating a procession tomorrow.

So the question is how well can Hamilton do? He can be backed to take an unlikely race victory tomorrow at 39/1 at Betfair, but be aware that the bet will stand whether he starts the race or not.

Alternatively he can be backed at 4/1 at Extrabet to finish on the podium. This interests me – if only because Extrabet are offering a bigger price than their competitors – but probably not enough to get involved. Their Sporting Rules also do not make it clear whether the bet will stand if Hamilton is unable to race.  I would advise anyone interested to contact Extrabet’s trading desk before committing any money.

Bet365 have pulled their Safety Car market for this weekend’s Grand Prix of Europe. Earlier this week they were betting 8/11 that we would not see the Safety Car on any of Sunday’s sixty laps. BetterBet, BoyleSports, BetDirect and SkyBet however are all still holding this price and I am not sure why.

In the last ten F1 races held at the German track, we have only seen the Safety Car twice and its appearances this season have hardly been prolific. Only two of the nine 2007 races have required the Mercedes CLK 63 AMG to take to the track, with the vast majority of outings being at the tricky Circuit Gilles Villeneuve as predicted.

The current Nurburgring configuration is the antidote to the old circuit which embraced the famous Nordschleife; safety-conscious and with large run-off areas, the opportunities for track blockage are low. That is not to say that the Safety Car will never be needed, indeed it was out last year, but there is little doubt that the price being offered by those four is too big.

Like any self-respecting F1 blogger, I couldn’t let this week go by without passing comment on the current F1 Espionage scandal . However, rather than try and second-guess the FIA and any findings or punishments that they choose to meat-out, I thought I would take a look at how the market is reacting.

Spread betting

SportingIndex has suspended betting on both their Driver and Constructor’s indices. I suppose this is the easiest way of them not getting caught out by any breaking news, but it is not very interesting.  McLaren’s sell price on the Constructors index had previously eased 5 points from its high point after Indianapolis, although I suspect that at least some of that was due to Ferrari’s performance at Silverstone.

Fixed Odds

Despite the lack of on track action, the past week has seen the majority of bookmakers shorten up Ferrari and push out McLaren in the Constructors market. Whether this is a consensus that action will be taken against the team from Woking, or weight of money forcing their hand, I can only speculate.  In the Drivers market, money seems to have dried up for Lewis Hamilton with SportingOdds offering him at the longest price seen anywhere since before the Canadian GP.

Exchanges

The story being told on Betfair is clear, with McLaren’s price in the Constructors market consistently on the drift since news of Coughlan’s actions broke. Even after the market corrected itself following last weekend’s race, the offered price has increased by a further 25%. Betfair’s own Price/Volume Over Time graphs for McLaren and Ferrari illustrate this perfectly. Again this is reflected in the Drivers market – with Alonso and Hamilton drifting.

Conclusion

There is no doubt that the events of the last few weeks are impacting the betting market. However, how much is down to nervousness and uncertainty as opposed to an actual belief that an outcome-affecting decision will be made is unclear.  Generally I find the exchanges good barometers as so many factors go into the betting public deciding what price is available at any given time. Deciding at what point McLaren have drifted sufficiently so that there is value to be had by backing them – is a different question completely.

The market that has been interesting me most in the run up to this weekend’s British Grand Prix is the Total Number of Drivers to be Classified. The interest stems particularly from the chance of inclement weather and the effect that this will have on the prices.

The Statistics

In the eight races so far this season the average number of classified drivers has been 16.25 (73.86%). In the last ten races at Silverstone just 71.23% of drivers have completed (15.67 drivers using Sunday’s projected field).

Where it becomes interesting is when we split Silverstone’s wet and dry races. Eight of the last ten have been dry and have seen 76.92% of drivers classified (16.92 projected drivers).  In the two wet races the average figure falls below 50% and we could expect as few as 10.74 drivers to see the chequered flag. I appreciate that the latter is a small sample but it is broadly reflective of what I would expect to see.

The Market

A small difference in opinion between two firms means that there is just a 103% book available and this gives me some options:

4/5 (Under 16.5) @ SportingOdds
11/10 (Over 16) @ Bet365

The prices look like the fairly standard ones that these two churn out week after week, so I am fairly confident that if the market is to move significantly, it will only be in one direction (and because it is a wet race).

The Bet

Looking at the weather forecast for Sunday, Weather.com have predicted rain for 12:00 local time.  Based on the above statistics – and the logic that more drivers will spin off in the wet – I am going to take the early price of Under 16.5 @ 4/5.  If come Sunday afternoon we have a wet race I do not believe that this price will be available (if it is – take it – it is value).  If the weather forecasters are wrong and the track is bathed in sunshine, I will close out my bet using Bet365’s price and accept a very small loss and no risk.  What I am playing, is my believe that the market makers have not adequately factored in the possibility of a wet race into their early prices.

The Alternative

If you are a weather-forecaster or you are just certain that it will be a rain-affected race then Bet365 are offering 15/8 that there will be under 15 classified drivers. This would be value.

Good luck.

Any of you MotoGP fans will probably be aware of this season’s amazing statistic that no pole-sitter has gone on to win the race in 2007.  That is zero from nine attempts.  The same is far from true in F1; Sunday’s French Grand Prix saw just the second time in eight races where the fastest man on Saturday did not see the chequered flag first.

I will be watching out over the next few weeks for circuits where historically the driver in pole position has gone on to win the race and will crunch the numbers to see whether the bookmakers are giving up a bit of value.