F1Punter

David Coulthard has been reminding us this week of his current strong performances in the Red Bull. Cutting through the self-publicity, I expect another decent showing from the Scot at Magny-Cours – a track where he has shown excellent pace in the past.

Between 1998 and 2002 DC set the fastest lap of the race in five consecutive French GPs.  In the last ten years here he has only qualified outside of the top ten once. Two top six finishes in Friday’s practice hint at speed in the car although enthusiasm is tempered slightly by this morning’s 10th best time (although still considerably quicker than his team-mate).

SkyBet are offering Evens that Coulthard will be involved in Q3 and this looks a fair price to me.

It is difficult to forecast with any certainty how Sunday’s race will pan-out with the threat of rain looming large. The number of finishers is usually pretty high in France but wet conditions in the past have decimated the field as the track’s renowned smooth surface becomes ultra-slippery when the rain falls.

It is worth noting that nine of the last ten winners of the race have started on the front row of the grid: Five from pole position and four from P2. The one exception being Heinz-Harold Frentzen’s victory in the wet race of 1999 from fifth on the grid.

Another interesting market is the margin of victory, i.e. the amount of time in seconds between the winner and the second placed finisher. The average gap over the last ten years has been over twelve seconds with just one ‘close’ finish in 2002 when Schumacher hunted down and passed Raikkonen following his mistake at the Adelaide hairpin. My only reluctance to get involved in this market stems from the recent spate of managed McLaren finishes, with neither driver wanting to be seen far behind the other. Perhaps the resurgent Ferraris can make things more interesting this weekend.

In response to a question from the floor in the Post-Qualifying press conference, Lewis Hamilton replied:

“You can’t win the race in the first corner, you have to get around and be safe and bring it home. So that’s going to be my target.”

I wonder whether his teammate will feel the same? Fernando Alonso must know that if he is to win this race and take back some of the momentum within the team then he must do something early.  If he waits until after the pit stops then there is no chance that Ron Dennis will allow him to pressurize Hamilton.

Alonso has always been a fast starter, over the previous years honing his skills to maximize the famed Renault starting prowess. The start at Montreal saw him get away from the front-row faster than his teammate and given the opportunity he wasn’t afraid to attack.  That time it never paid off, perhaps unsurprisingly given that he was attempting to go round the outside of such a tight turn.

Indianapolis however, presents a different opportunity. A good start for Alonso and the long run down the pit straight will give him the inside line in to turn one.  Indeed we saw Felipe Massa pass Michael Schumacher in the same circumstances here last year. From the front, Alonso can dictate the race and I can’t see him passing up the opportunity if it arises.

Betting on the outcome of just one corner is a little risky so I will keep my stakes small.  However I do feel that there is some value in the 4.3 at Betfair for Alonso to lead after the first lap.

Jarno Trulli has made the Qualifying top-ten shootout in five out of the six races so far this season, averaging the ninth fastest time in Q2.  His only failure was at the idiosyncratic Monte Carlo.

It is widely acknowledged that the Italian is stronger over one lap than in race conditions and this weekend sees him return to a track where he has had success in the past. It is easy to forget in the aftermath of the Michelin debacle of 2005 that Trulli had qualified his Toyota in Pole Position the previous day.

Admittedly last season’s qualifying here at Indianapolis was not so stellar, but in racing through the field to finish a mightily impressive fourth, Trulli again showed his fondness for this racetrack. In fact this was the fourth time that Jarno had finished fourth here, with a fifth and one DNF rounding out a most impressive record at the Brickyard.

Last night Bwin were offering 7/5 that Trulli would advance through to qualifying session three, a markedly different approach to their competitors.  This market has since been removed, perhaps indicating their folly.  Currently the best price available is 10/11 with SportingOdds and that still looks good value to me.

McLaren can currently be laid at 1.15 on Betfair to have the winning car in this afternoon’s race. Obviously they are rightly very strong favourites to do so, but is there any value in the near 7/1 price that you are getting about the other twenty runners?  Here are some factors to consider:

Montreal is not a track where it is imperative to be on pole. Eight out of the last twenty winners have started from the second row or worse.

Bearing in mind the above, have the Ferrari’s opted to carry more fuel in a bid to beat McLaren in the pits?

The Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve is an acknowledged car-breaker and McLaren haven’t managed to get both cars to the finish since 2004.

Ferrari topped the timesheets in both ‘Montreal configuration’ tests at Paul Ricard in May.

Three times in the last nine years we have seen incidents on the first lap that have required the Safety Car. As the race for supremacy inside the McLaren team warms up, could we see a coming together?

Historically Kimi Raikkonen has raced better than he has qualified round here.

Personally I wont be getting involved.  Like most I can only see a McLaren victory and in truth so far this season they are the team whose reliability you have worried about the least.  However I am sure that there will be worse outside bets this season.

Ok I am back again with more ramblings about the Safety Car – just say if I am getting repetitive!  The last race in Monaco saw the bookmakers offering some ridiculously short prices about the Safety Car being deployed, with 4/11 being just about the best price at the off. As I pointed out in my last post, this was never value and in truth I took a bit of satisfaction watching the seventy-eight trouble-free laps knowing that I had swerved it.

Next weekend’s race is a different proposition though and I am pleased to see the bookies falling into the trap I hoped they would. Not everyone has their markets out yet, but SkyBet are offering 4/5 that the Safety Car will be deployed at some point in the race.  I think that this is a very generous price and will be surprised if a) they hold it all week, or b) anybody else prices it up longer.

Montreal is always a venue that I target in this market due to the proximity of its tyre walls to the track and the small run-off areas that often make vehicle recovery tricky and blockage likely.  There is also the infamous ‘Champions Wall’ at such a precarious part of the circuit. The statistics certainly back me up:

In the nine years that I have been keeping my records, the Safety Car has been deployed no fewer than twelve times, more than any other track bar Melbourne (also twelve times).  Six out of the nine races have seen it appear at least once. On three occasions we have failed even to get past the first lap without the marshals holding out the SC board.  In last year’s race we saw the Safety Car twice; on lap one and again on lap sixty.

Perhaps what I like most about this bet though is the knowledge that the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve has the potential to pop-up and bite even the very best drivers when they least expect it.

If anyone sees a better price than 4/5 between now and the race please post it up.