F1Punter

Not a great deal stands out for me this weekend with the bookmakers seemingly wise to my usual play. I had been hoping that as the event neared a standout price for the Safety Car to be deployed would materialise.  We have seen the Mercedes road car in each of the last four seasons take to the streets of the principality during the race and it would be no surprise to see it do so again.

A 22 car field, plenty of rookies (with even the best proving they are not infallible already this weekend) and next to no run off areas would seem like the perfect recipe for some blocked track carnage; but with odds generally no better than 4/11, I am happy to keep my powder dry.  Especially as prior to this four-year run there was a sustained – and surprising – period of inactivity for the safety car driver.  Bwin’s ‘How many times will we see the Safety Car’ markets do not make much appeal either.

Anybody who does want to take the plunge will probably struggle to beat the price at SkyBet, though personally I will be waiting for Montreal where I expect there to be much better value on offer.

Add another feather in the cap of Bwin as they are first out with prices for the Monaco Grand Prix. Even more impressively they have already priced up 52 markets across qualifying and the race. Their odds for the race winner are as follows:

Not that I would necessarily advise taking those prices at this stage. The outright market is so competitive I would expect some bigger quotes to be available on the exchanges before race day. They are useful for predicting how the market will form though.

One price that I am not expecting to get much bigger is that of Lewis Hamilton. I can see him being the focus of much of the press coverage in the build up to the Monte Carlo race. As the feat of him leading the World Championship in his rookie season begins to sink in, attention will turn to his goals for Monaco and also his record there.

A quick look through his racing history and I have found three occasions when he has competed at Monaco; twice in the F3 Euroseries (same weekend) and once in GP2. These forays have resulted in two pole positions and three victories. I expect it to be the unbeaten factor that the press and the public latch on to.

Lewis himself seems fairly confident. When asked in the Spanish GP Post Race Press Conference how he would prepare for the lottery of Monaco, the Brit replied:

I don’t see it as a lottery. Monaco has always been a very strong race for me and I was saying to Felipe that one day we will get you and you never know whether it’s that one or… …but I think we’ll be very strong in Monaco, so I’m looking forward to it. Again, that’s one where we’re going to be pushing hard to get as many points as we can but for sure, I’m going to be going in for a win.

Of course talk by the media or the man himself is one thing, winning around Monaco is quite another. Whilst lottery is perhaps stretching it, there is little doubt that it is one of the most unpredictable races on the calendar.

Has anyone else got any early thoughts about the race?

Included amongst the dozens of markets that Bwin are still offering on the Spanish Grand Prix is one on the winning margin – i.e. the amount of time in seconds between the first and second cars to pass the chequered flag.

Interestingly, alongside the usual under/over type bet, they are offering a range of time periods that the winning margin will fall in to. The final option being over 25 seconds priced at 9/1. My initial reaction was to discount it, as I feel that recent rule changes introduced by the FIA, have generally lead to a tightening of the field. However, further investigation and a quick look at the winning margins of the last ten Spanish GPs shows an interesting story:

2006 +18.5 secs
2005 +27.6 secs
2004 +13.2 secs
2003 +5.7 secs
2002 +35.630 secs
2001 +40.738 secs
2000 +16.066 secs
1999 +6.238 secs
1998 +9.439 secs
1977 +5.804 secs

Now the first three races of 2007 have had an average winning margin of just 9 seconds, however the largest margin came at Malaysia (17.5 seconds), another track that has historically seen a fair share of races with a large gap between the winner and the runner up.  I am not sure what it is about the individual conditions or configurations of tracks that leads to a trend in winning margins but I would wager that it is more than just coincidence.

In simple terms, 9/1 about something that has happened three times out of the last ten would appear to be value. Whether you feel this sample is reflective of the true situation and this is a good bet – I will leave to you to decide.

BetterBet are offering a couple of group betting markets, which I often find can add interest to the intriguing midfield battles. Of the two, the group that interests me most is priced up as follows:

15/8 – Kubica
11/4 – Fisichella
11/4 – Trulli
11/4 – Kovalainen

It is no surprise to see the BMW driver favourite, but perhaps a little to see him as large as 15/8. His qualifying time today was over half-a-second quicker than anyone else in the group and in two out of the three practice sessions he has shown them all a clean set of heels. Interestingly, this gang-of-four finished line astern last time out in Bahrain; Kubica though was over 35 seconds ahead of the other three, whilst some distance down the road Fisichella, Trulli and Kovalainen were separated by just 8 seconds. He looks a class apart to me.

At 15/8 you are always wary of any failure to complete the race, however I have often taken shorter prices in the past about race winners and they have had 21 rivals to beat!

I have just noticed that bwin.com are offering a staggering 163 different markets on this weekend’s Spanish Grand Prix. Included are some markets that I have simply never seen offered before, such as betting on a top 3 finish in Free Practice or on the outcome of each phase of Qualifying. There are plenty of interesting head-to-heads and specials too.

BWin (formerly betandwin.com) is a fairly established name in European Sportsbook terms, but up until now it has flown under my radar in terms of F1 betting. I therefore don’t know whether this weekend’s offering is the norm or whether it is a special effort to reflect the high amount of their sponsorship that we normally see at the Circuit de Catalunya. I will certainly be keeping a watching brief.

With such a range of markets I can’t help but feel that their odds compiler must be letting some value slip somewhere, regardless of the hefty overround that is factored-in. I will be having a proper look at them all tomorrow.

Ok, this weekend’s Grand Prix may be being held just north of Barcelona and not in Pamplona, but I am predicting a strong performance from Red Bull Racing and am backing them to pick up their first points of the 2007 season.

The RB3-Renault

Once again it has been reliability that has made the headlines for the team this season with only two cars seeing the chequered flag in the opening three races. However these races have not been without promise: The team has shown increased competitiveness each weekend, culminating in their exciting – if unrewarded – performance in Bahrain. There, Mark Webber was able to qualify his car comfortably inside the top ten, whilst David Coulthard charged through the field from 21st on the grid to a high point of seventh before he was forced to retire with a driveshaft failure.

I am hoping that the four-weeks of testing since that race have enabled RBR to iron-out some of the reliability issues that they been experiencing. Promising too has been the continued speed that they have demonstrated during this period. On the final day of testing here in Barcelona last week, DC set a new fastest lap of the circuit on his way to topping the timesheets – his time placing him ahead of the likes of Ferrari and McLaren.

The Track

The Circuit de Catalunya can hardly be described as a breathtaking circuit, not least because of the lack of overtaking opportunities that it presents drivers. Even the revised penultimate corner does not appear to have had the desired effect.

Neither can it be described as spectacular for either Red Bull driver; Coulthard had a nice run of four podiums in five years between 1998 and 2002 whilst Webber has had a couple of finishes in the points. A repeat of 2005, where both drivers finished in the top eight (DC in his Red Bull) would not go amiss.

The Drivers

The lack of overtaking in Spain puts a premium on a strong qualifying performance and in Mark Webber, Red Bull have a driver of the highest-calibre. I fully expect him to be doing his utmost on Saturday to secure himself a strong racing position for Sunday.

Regrettably, qualifying does not appear to be the forte of Coulthard and at 36 it is difficult to see that changing. I take heart though from his performance in Bahrain. He clearly has a car underneath him in which he is happy to overtake and if anyone is going to force their way past rivals around here then it might just be DC.

The Competition

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to predict that Ferrari, McLaren and BMW are the three teams most likely to fill the majority of the place-paying slots. The only positive may be that only once this season has reliability allowed them to fill six of them.

Next up – and probably the team that RBR are targeting more than any other – are their engine suppliers Renault. The French team have made an inauspicious start to the season and vibes ahead of a return to action after four weeks when they should have been looking to rediscover their pace are not promising.  To quote Technical Director Pat Symonds: “The road back to our normal level of competitiveness will be a long one” and “We are not expecting leaps forward in competitiveness this weekend.”

Further competition will likely be from the two Toyota-powered teams who have both scored points in the opening three rounds of the World Championship.

I don’t expect the Honda teams to test Webber and Coulthard, although I would not be in the least bit surprised if Super Aguri were again to hold the upper hand. Team Honda appear to have spent the testing break bolting parts on to their car which make it go no faster. Super Aguri on the other hand and Anthony Davidson in particular have hinted at some decent speed in the so-called second team car during the first three races. What Davidson now needs to do is transform it into some consistently competitive race laps.

Finally we have the Toro Rosso and Spyker machines. Given the title of this post it would have been nice to crowbar in something about the STRs chasing the field, however in truth they will more than likely beat home the Spykers… and possibly the Hondas.

The Bets

I am keeping it simple this week and backing both drivers to place in the fixed-odds market.  SportingOdds are currently offering standout prices on both drivers:

Mark Webber @ 9/4
David Coulthard @ 5/2

Either one finishing in the points would pay a healthy return – both would be a bonus.

Given the circumstances that have curtailed the team’s success so far this season; I will also be laying them both to be classified (to cover my stake) at healthy odds-on once the markets are better formed at Betfair. It seems a sensible approach to me.