F1Punter

Kimi Raikkonen started the weekend as the 9/4 second-favourite behind his teammate to set the fastest race lap in tomorrow’s Bahrain Grand Prix.  After going quickest in the first practice session on Friday – half a second faster than Massa – he was slashed in to a best price of 17/10 favourite where he remained as he again topped the timesheets in Friday practice two and was just 0.006 seconds from doing so again on Saturday.

Following today’s qualifying session, the Finn is available at 5/2 at SportingOdds; the longest price he has been since the markets were formed. Without getting carried away with the practice sessions, where the public have little knowledge of the setups or fuel loads of the cars, this does strike me as a bit of an overreaction. Perhaps even more so with Kimi claiming traffic on both of his Q3 runs compromised his ultimate pace.

The fastest lap market is always one in which I expect Kimi Raikkonen to thrive.  As a driver, whilst he may not possess the ability to lap relentlessly in the way that Fernando Alonso can, he is clearly capable of throwing in a blindingly fast lap at any stage of a race. Seasoned Formula 1 observers will not be unfamiliar with the sight of Raikkonen, out of contention for the victory, posting the fastest race lap in the dying stages. This often appears an almost petulant gesture; as though he is demonstrating how fast he could have gone if [in his opinion] events had not conspired against him.

This view is backed up by the statistics. Raikkonen has set the fastest race lap in twenty separate grand prix – 18.7% of the races in which he has competed. This is particularly impressive given that all bar one of those have been achieved in a car other than a Ferrari, during a time period when the Italian marque has dominated through the speed traps. Indeed last season a Ferrari posted the fastest race lap on 9 of its 18 attempts.

To put this in the context of his nearest challengers; Fernando Alonso has recorded just seven fastest race laps in his career (7.8% of races started) and Felipe Massa just two (2.7%). Indeed many believe that his biggest rival in this market will be the outstanding rookie Lewis Hamilton. Hamilton, veteran of two races, topped the timesheets on Saturday before despatching his McLaren to the front row of the grid for tomorrow’s race. More pertinently, the Brit also recorded the fastest race lap last time out in Malaysia.

Raikkonen too has a fastest race lap under his belt this season – thanks to his efforts in Australia – and whilst I backed him to repeat the feat in Malaysia this article from FreshF1 may go some way to explaining his failure. A new engine here in Bahrain should hopefully remove that factor from the equation.

A further feature that will not have gone unnoticed by the Finn is that this is the second successive race that he has been out-qualified by his teammate. With many in the paddock predicting that a victory here would see him take precedent over Massa in Ferrari’s push for the championship, I cannot see him passing up the opportunity to prove again which of the two can wring the most speed from the car.

All of this leaves us with the fast-lapping Finn, in his fast-lapping Ferrari, armed with a new engine and with his teammate in his sights at the longest price he has been all weekend. It looks a bet to me.

Below are my thoughts on some of the speciality markets that are available for tomorrow’s Malaysian Grand Prix. Let me know what you think:

Number of Finishers

SportingIndex have in my opinion priced their quote for the number of drivers to finish the race a point or two too high at 15.5 – 16. In the previous eight races at Sepang, just 63% of drivers have been classified by the FIA, equating to the expectation that just 13.9 drivers will finish tomorrow’s race. To sell at 15.5 and lose would require more than 70% of those that line up to complete and this has only happened once since the race’s inception and not since 2003. On the fixed odds front, PaddyPower go 13/10 that 14 or fewer drivers complete and that looks a fair price.

My only doubt is that it is early in the season to be drawing conclusions about the reliability of this year’s packages. 17 out of the 22 starters were classified in Melbourne, although that is a race that has seen 17 out of 20 complete in the recent past. Overall though, hot and humid weather and the possibility of rain are conditions conducive to a low number of finishers.

Lap of First Retirement

Bet365 are offering a market on the time of the first retirement from the Grand Prix priced as follows:

Whilst 8/11 might not be the type of price that many look to get involved at; since the first race in 1999, there has been a first lap retiree on five occasions. In 2005 it took until the third lap for both Hondas to let go and Patrick Freisacher to take refuge in the safety of a gravel trap. For the record, the two occasions where the under bet would not have been landed are 2004 (lap 24) and 2002 (lap 10).

Safety Car

Not much luck with the Safety Car bet in Melbourne, but I am happy that it was value at the odds. Again here in Kuala Lumpur the historic records do not seem to match up with the bookmaker’s quotes. Just two of the eight races at Sepang have seen a safety car, the last being in 2001. This should come as no surprise, as the Hermann Tilke designed track has ample run off areas and recovery zones to keep itself free of stricken cars and debris. This hasn’t stopped BetterBet and BetDirect offering Evens that we won’t see the Mercedes CLK 63 AMG called in to action. It looks wrong to me.

Fastest Lap

Less of a statistics-based bet here, more an opportunity to take advantage of a standout price. SportingOdds are offering 9/4 that Kimi Raikkonen sets the fastest lap of the race. This is considerably bigger than their competitors and – perhaps remarkably – longer than the lay price available on Betfair.

Although qualifying indicates that McLaren appear to have closed the gap to Ferrari, realistically I can only see this being a shootout between the two Tifosi representatives once the cars are in race trim. Massa is clear favourite and I presume that SportingOdds feel that he will be able to bolt from Pole Position and make hay with a clear track. The only problem I have with this is that he will, initially at least, be carrying full race fuel. Later on in the race as we approach the pit stops (a time where a large proportion of lap records are set), there is a high likelihood that Massa will be managing the race from the front and it will be Kimi in the sister car who is pushing to make up a deficit.

Interestingly, on the five occasions that the Finn has raced around the Sepang track in an F1 car, he has set a faster race lap than his team mate every time.

The potential for rain, the small lingering doubts about Kimi’s engine durability and the respect for his team mate have stopped me from wading in to this price, but overall I think that the traders at SportingOdds are being generous in their differing opinion from the rest of the market.