F1Punter

I have just been looking at the revised best prices post-Melbourne for the Driver and Manufacturer World Championships. The bookmaker’s changes generally appear to reflect the press reaction of the last week. The question is, are any of them an overreaction at this stage of the season?

I certainly didn’t expect to see the reigning Manufacturers champions available at 33/1 after just one race.

F1 Drivers Championship Odds

F1 Manufacturers Championship Odds

Best prices taken from Oddschecker. Better prices may be available on the exchanges.

In the opening race of the 2006 Formula One season we witnessed a stunning drive from Kimi Raikonnen from 19th on the grid to claim a place on the Bahrain podium. Fast-forward 12 months and it is his teammate who will be looking to repeat the feat, as Massa starts from 16th position in today’s Australian Grand Prix.

The Brazilian has no reason to be fazed by this task. Two years ago – the last time that Melbourne hosted the season-opener – both Fernando Alonso and Rubens Barrichello (then driving a Ferrari) started from outside of the top ten to take their respective places on the podium.

Indeed Massa himself is no stranger to scything through F1 fields. Since his move to Ferrari he has started outside of the top ten on three occasions (21st, 21st and 22nd). On the first two occasions he improved his finishing position by 16 and 12 places respectively. In the third race – at China – a storming drive from last position had seen him run as high as fifth position before he ultimately retired from the race (whilst still running inside the top ten).

Yesterday’s qualifying showed that the McLaren and the BMWs are capable of running at a strong pace but there was little doubt that the Ferrari is still the fastest car on the grid. I expect Massa to be able to put this to good use.

Boylesports are currently offering the following bet at a standout price:

Australian GP To Finish On The Podium – Felipe Massa @ 4/1

The only concerns I have about taking this price are the unknown nature of the gearbox problems that Massa suffered during qualifying and the sheer number of cars that the Brazilian will have to pass cleanly to enable him to finish inside the top three. For that reason I will be covering my stake with the 11/5 available at Expekt that Massa will not be classified.

Good Luck.

Looking away from the obvious this weekend, one market that interests me is whether or not the Safety Car will be deployed during the Australian Grand Prix. Unsurprisingly this occurrence is far from random and an important attribute is the nature of the track.

It seems that the key factor in Safety Car deployment is not the potential number of accidents that can occur during the race; but the potential for accidents to leave the track blocked, either by debris or by the cars themselves. Obviously therefore tracks with small run off areas such as Monaco, Montreal and Melbourne are prime candidates.

Other factors that I would look to take into account are the weather, the number of rookie drivers in the race and any changes in the regulations to which the drivers are likely to need time to adjust.

Which brings me to this weekend’s race at Melbourne…

I have already highlighted the fact that this is a track with the potential for us to see the Safety Car and the statistics bear that out.  In the nine races held at Melbourne since 1998 (no stats available for 1996 and 1997), the Safety Car has been deployed no fewer than twelve times – including four times during last year’s race. In that period only three races have been completed without the introduction of the Safety Car.

Given that it is the first race of the season, the potential for mistakes is also heightened. Indeed five of the drivers lining up on the grid in Melbourne will be racing on its slick and slippery surface for the first time in a Formula 1 car.

Furthermore, all 22 drivers will be using the new Bridgestone Potenza tyres – and having to come to terms with using more than one compound during the race.  It has also been noticeable that in all of the pre-race interviews with the drivers, when asked about tyres, the feature that they most focus upon is the lack of grip when compared with last year’s offerings. It will be interesting to see how they perform under race conditions.

Which leads me to my bet. The statistics alone point to it being a 4/6 shot that we will see the Safety Car at some point and it could be argued that the number of rookies and the new tyres make it even shorter. Therefore I consider that the following represents some value:

Australian GP Safety Car market – Yes @ 4/5 – SkyBet

Good luck.

Ladbrokes were the first out this morning with their prices for the Australian Grand Prix win market albeit with a rather ungenerous 120% book. Unsurprisingly the two Ferrari’s head the market, with Massa – the man who has been making all of the winter headlines – favourite at 9/4.

When I say unsurprising, perhaps that is not strictly true, as this is the first time that bookmakers have acknowledged the media’s assertion that the Brazilian currently holds the upper hand within the team. Most bookmakers still have Massa as third favourite to take the Driver’s Championship with his team mate in pole position. Nowhere is this difference more marked than at Extrabet where they go Kimi 5/4 and Massa 3/1.

Personally, I am also of the opinion that Massa will outshine Raikkonen early on it the season and similarly that Ferrari will hold an advantage over the opposition.

Not only does Massa appear to have carried the momentum of last season through the winter – consistently topping the timesheets at the final major test at Bahrain; but Kimi is having to come to terms with a new team, a new philosophy and crucially new tyres.

Big-hitters such as Ecclestone and Montezemelo have come out and voiced support for the Brazilian. Whilst with rumours persisting of a behind-the-scenes role for Michael Schumacher, it would be no surprise to find out that Massa has been able to cherry-pick some of the Ferrari resources that most had earmarked for Raikkonen as he put pen to paper on his big money deal.

So is Felipe Massa a good bet for the title at as big as 7/2 in places? Not necessarily.

Firstly, it is always dangerous to read too much in to winter testing. It will come as no surprise to many if, as the season unfolds, Kimi quickly leaves behind his winter testing form. We have seen it before from him.

Secondly, we are yet to see how Massa performs under the weight of expectation. Whilst many will point to the fact that moving into the spotlight at Ferrari has been the making of him; it is surely easier to develop as a driver whilst playing understudy to Michael Schumacher than it is to do so as the man the Tifosi are expecting to deliver the title.  As I still believe that Massa has some developing to do if he is to become the finished article, I can’t rule out him making mistakes over the season.

All that said; if there is an opportunity to make some money on Massa, it has to be now whilst his team mate is coming to terms with his car and the Brazilian’s confidence is sky high. Ladbrokes apparently have a special bet for Massa to be leading the Driver’s Championship after three rounds at 2/1, but I can’t see it on their website. Instead a safer option would probably be to try and trade his outright price either on the exchanges or on SportingIndex’s Driver’s Championship Index. I personally would be surprised to see anything as big as 7/2 available when the F1 roadshow rocks up in Spain.

Incidentally, my initial reaction to Ladbrokes 9/4 for the Australian Grand Prix was that it was on the large side. However I think I will wait and see what their competitors come up with before taking the plunge.

It is not often that I get involved in season-long markets as there are so many factors that you cannot control in this already most unpredictable sport. It is even less common for me to place a bet a long time before the season commences as the situation of drivers, cars and teams can change so much in the months that make up the off-season. However whilst killing some time over the Christmas and New Year holidays (and after some careful consideration) this bet tempted me to part with some hard-earned:

Heikki Kovalainen – Top 3 Finish Drivers World Championship @ 7/1 SportingOdds

There are lots of reasons I liked this bet…

The Price:

Kovalainen’s price in the outright market had contracted dramatically in the previous couple of months. BetFred and BlueSq for example had cut him from 25/1 through 20/1 to the general market price of 16/1. Almost all of the others had followed suit with several going 14/1.

SportingOdds were still offering the massively standout price of 28/1. They, like almost all of their competitors they were offering each way terms of 1,2,3 @ 1/5 odds and it is this place part in which I was most interested. At SkyBet this place part would pay just 2.8/1 with the added inconvenience of probably losing the win part to the vastly more experienced Kimi Raikkonen or Fernando Alonso. Best price would be SportingOdds own 5.6/1. However SportingOdds were very kindly offering 7/1 in a standalone Top 3 Finish Drivers World Championship market. That price just looked wrong to me.

The Situation:

Without going in to too much detail, the Finnish Protégé has:

• Done thousands of miles testing in the Renault Car.
• Won rookie of the year twice already in his junior racing career.
• Has a solid teammate who will bring experience in developing the car but crucially is beatable to the #1 driver slot in the team.
• A car that is well capable of placing him in the top three. Renault’s assurance that they are in F1 for the foreseeable future means that they will resource to carry on winning.
• Had beaten his teammate on the timesheets comfortably on all four days of the recent Jerez test (don’t know the circs of the test but surely not a bad thing).
•  The backing of the team – they are big on the whole driver development thing.

The Negatives:

Obviously Heikki is an unproven quantity in F1 and I am taking the chance that he will adapt. He will face stiff competition from the quartet of Alonso, Kimi, Massa and Button for the three spots. Plus I face a long wait for any payout.

All-in-all I am happy with the 7/1 price and notice that SportingOdds have since removed the market!

Formula 1: Against The Odds

 Welcome to my blog. Please feel free to comment on any of the posts made here.

 The 2007 Formula 1 season is just 14 days away and anticipation is steadily building. Driver line-ups are confirmed, liveries have been revealed and testing is almost complete.

 Speaking of testing, F1live.com have provided their usual comprehensive coverage over the Winter. Whilst specifics such as setup, tyres and fuel-loads are often unknown or at best have to be taken on trust from the teams I still find assessing what happened in the off-season an extremely useful tool when trying to predict early season performance. Of particular interest is how teammates have tested against each other. I will be posting up these thoughts as I identify my bets over the coming weeks.